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XiXiDu comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong
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But barely. ;)
You would not believe how little that would impress me. Well, I suppose you would - I've been talking with XiXi about Ben, after all. I wouldn't exactly say that your status incentives promote neutral reasoning on this position - or Robin on the same. It is also slightly outside of the core of your expertise, which is exactly where the judgement of experts is notoriously demonstrated to be poor.
You are trying to create AGI without friendliness and you would like to believe it will go foom? And this is supposed to make us trust your judgement with respect to AI risks?
Incidentally, 'the bottom line' accusation here was yours, not the other way around. The reference was to question its premature use as a fully general counterargument.
We are talking here about predictions of the future. Predictions. That's an important keyword that is related to falsifiability. Build a flipping AGI of approximately human level and see if whether the world as we know it ends within a year.
You just tagged teamed one general counterargument out to replace it with a new one. Unfalsifiability has a clear meaning when it comes to creating and discussing theories and it is inapplicable here to the point of utter absurdity. Predictions, for crying out loud.
Yes, but why would the antipredictions of AGI researcher not outweigh yours as they are directly inverse? Further, if your predictions are not falsifiable then they are by definition true and cannot be refuted. Therefore it is not unreasonable to ask for what would prematurely disqualify your predictions so as to be able to argue based on diverging opinions here. Otherwise, as I said above, we'll have two inverse predictions outweigh each other, and not the discussion about risk estimations we should be having.
The claim being countered was falsifiability. Your reply here is beyond irrelevant to the comment you quote.
rwallace said it all in his comment that has been downvoted. Since I'm unable to find anything wrong with his comment and don't understand yours at all, which has for unknown reasons be upvoted, there's no way for me to counter what you say besides by what I've already said.
Here's a wild guess of what I believe to be the positions. rwallace asks you what information would make you update or abandon your predictions. You in turn seem to believe that predictions are just that, the utterance of that might be possible, unquestionable and not subject to any empirical criticism.
I believe I'm at least smarter than the general public, although I haven't read a lot of Less Wrong yet. Further I'm always willing to announce that I have been wrong and to change my mind. This should at least make you question your communication skills regarding outsiders, a little bit.
Theories are collections or proofs and a hypothesis is a prediction or collection of predictions and must be falsifiable or proven to become a collection of proofs that is a theory. It is not absurd at all to challenge predictions based on their refutability, as any prediction that isn't falsifiable will be eternal and therefore useless.
The wikipedia article on falsifiablility would be a good place to start if you wish to understand what is wrong with way falsification has been used (or misused) here. With falsifiability understood, seeing the problem should be straightforward.
I'll just back out and withdraw my previous statements here. I have already been reading that Wiki entry when you replied. It would certainly take too long to figure out where I might be wrong here. I thought falsifiablility has been sufficiently clear to me to ask for what would change someones mind if I believe that a given prediction is sufficiently unspecific.
I have to immerse myself into the shallows that are the foundations of falsifiability (philosophy). I have done so in the past and will continue to do so, but that will take time. Nothing so far has really convinced me that a unfalsifiable idea can provide more than hints of what might be possible and therefore something new to try. Yet empirical criticism, in the form of the eventual realization of ones ideas, or a prove of contradiction (respectively inconsistency), seems to be the best bedding of any truth-value (at least in retrospect to a prediction). That is why I like to ask for what information would change ones mind about an idea, prediction or hypothesis. I call this falsifiability. If one replied, "nothing falsifiability is misused here", I would conclude that his idea is unfalsifiable. Maybe wrongly so!
Thou art wise.