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Manfred comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong
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Comments (264)
Most growth curves are sigmoid. They start off looking like a FOOM and finish with diminishing returns.
Most growth curves of things that grow because they are self-replicating are sigmoid.
"Capability functions" get to do whatever the heck they want, limited only by the whims of the humans (mostly me) I'm basing my estimates on.