orthonormal comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong
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I'm open to the usual kinds of Bayesian evidence. Lets see. H is "there will be no more FOOMs". What do you have in mind as a good E? Hmm, lets see. How will the world be observably different if you are right, from how it will look if you are wrong?
Point out such an E, and then observe it, and you may sway me to your side.
Removing my tongue from my cheek, I will make an observation. I'm sure that you have heard the statement "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." Well, there is another kind of claim that requires extraordinary evidence. Claims of the form "We don't have to worry about that, anymore."
IWICUTT.
(I Wish I Could Upvote This Twice.)