orthonormal comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong

18 Post author: rwallace 04 November 2010 08:22PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (264)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Perplexed 04 November 2010 11:56:49PM 8 points [-]

If you aren't convinced yet that another one is very unlikely, okay, what would convince you?

I'm open to the usual kinds of Bayesian evidence. Lets see. H is "there will be no more FOOMs". What do you have in mind as a good E? Hmm, lets see. How will the world be observably different if you are right, from how it will look if you are wrong?

Point out such an E, and then observe it, and you may sway me to your side.

Removing my tongue from my cheek, I will make an observation. I'm sure that you have heard the statement "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." Well, there is another kind of claim that requires extraordinary evidence. Claims of the form "We don't have to worry about that, anymore."

Comment author: orthonormal 07 November 2010 06:57:37PM 1 point [-]

Removing my tongue from my cheek, I will make an observation. I'm sure that you have heard the statement "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." Well, there is another kind of claim that requires extraordinary evidence. Claims of the form "We don't have to worry about that, anymore."

IWICUTT.

(I Wish I Could Upvote This Twice.)