gwern comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong

18 Post author: rwallace 04 November 2010 08:22PM

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Comment author: gwern 28 February 2012 06:45:39PM 2 points [-]

There is now reportedly a Go program (available as a bot on KGS), which has hit 5-dan as of 2012.

Comment author: CarlShulman 29 February 2012 02:33:38AM 1 point [-]

This computer Go poll, conducted in 1997 to estimate arrival times for shodan and world champion level software play, is interesting: the programmers were a bit too optimistic, but the actual time required for shodan level was very close to the median estimate.

Comment author: gwern 29 February 2012 03:00:23AM 0 points [-]

That doesn't bode too well for reaching world champion level - if I toss the list into tr -s '[:space:]' | cut -d ' ' -f 3 | sort -g | head -14, the median estimate is 2050! Personally, I expect it by 2030.