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CarlShulman comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong
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This computer Go poll, conducted in 1997 to estimate arrival times for shodan and world champion level software play, is interesting: the programmers were a bit too optimistic, but the actual time required for shodan level was very close to the median estimate.
That doesn't bode too well for reaching world champion level - if I toss the list into
tr -s '[:space:]' | cut -d ' ' -f 3 | sort -g | head -14, the median estimate is 2050! Personally, I expect it by 2030.