gwern comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong

18 Post author: rwallace 04 November 2010 08:22PM

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Comment author: gwern 29 February 2012 03:00:23AM 0 points [-]

That doesn't bode too well for reaching world champion level - if I toss the list into tr -s '[:space:]' | cut -d ' ' -f 3 | sort -g | head -14, the median estimate is 2050! Personally, I expect it by 2030.