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Document comments on Stanford historian on the singularity - Less Wrong
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Haven't watched the video, but my vague understanding is that "business is usual" depends on unsustainable rates of growth, pointing toward collapse, and includes constant progress in AI-related technology, pointing toward singularity. The potential vagueness of the boundary between business as usual and collapse might be a problem in talking about which is more likely, though.
Restriction to 21st century is an important element of the question. If you state the same about the next 10 years, then clearly most likely neither extreme will attain.
I wonder whether a continual rear-guard action forestalling collapse would be considered "business as usual" or not. I suspect yes, and that someone sufficiently cynical would say this is what is already happening.
I can imagine alternatives that can't be considered either singularity, collapse, or business-as-usual -- a resource-based economy, for example -- but I don't consider them any more likely than either of the first two. Political trends strongly support collapse.