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NihilCredo comments on The hard limits of hard nanotech - Less Wrong
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I posit that if you haven't read and understood a significant amount of the core research papers on any type of technology, you shouldn't put much weight at all on your intuition when considering its potential. (This of course includes cases where there isn't a significant amount of research papers on a certain technology.)
[Note: temporarily ignore this advice if you plan to make money by writing an entertaining pop futurology book.]
I'm currently writing a futurology book which I hope will prove entertaining and personally profitable. If someone accuses me of relying too much on my intuition in areas beyond my expertise I will direct them to your comment.