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ArisKatsaris comments on A note on the description complexity of physical theories - Less Wrong
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Yeah, I guess the preceding post needs some obvious amendments in light of this post (though the general point still stands). I hope people are smart enough to see them anyway.
I just don't understand what sense it makes for a perfect Bayesian to distinguish between equivalent theories. Is it still honestly about "degrees of belief", or is it now about those other informal properties that you list?
The prior probability of a simple explanation is inherently greater than the prior probability of a complex explanation.
If all evidence/observation confirm both explanations equally, then the simple explanation still is on the lead: because it started out with a higher prior probability.