shokwave comments on A note on the description complexity of physical theories - Less Wrong
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I was actually going off the idea that the vast majority - 100% minus pr(survive all suicides) - of worlds would have the subject dead at some point, so all those worlds would not be convinced. Sure, people in your branch might believe you, but in (100 - 9.3x10^-302) percent of the branches, you aren't there to prove that quantum suicide works. This means, I think, that the chance of you existing to prove that quantum suicide proves MWI to the rest of the world, the chance is equal to the chance of you surviving in a nonMWI universe.
I was going to say well, if you had a test with a 1% chance of confirming X and a 99% chance of disconfirming X, and you ran it a thousand times and made sure you presented only the confirmations, you would be laughed at to suggest that X is confirmed - but it is MWI that predicts every quantum event comes out every result, so only under MWI could you run the test a thousand times - so that would indeed be pretty convincing evidence that MWI is true.
Also: I only have a passing familiarity with Robin's mangled worlds, but at the power of negative three hundred, it feels like a small enough 'world' to get absorbed into the mass of worlds where it works a few times and then they actually do die.
The problem I have with that is that from my perspective as an external observer it looks no different than someone flipping a coin (appropriately weighted) a thousand times and getting thousand heads. It's quite improbable, but the fact that someone's life depends on the coin shouldn't make any difference for me - the universe doesn't care.
Of course it also doesn't convince me that the coin will fall heads for the 1001-st time.
(That's only if I consider MWI and Copenhagen here. In reality after 1000 coin flips/suicides I would start to strongly suspect some alternative hypotheses. But even then it shouldn't change my confidence of MWI relative to my confidence of Copenhagen).