Jack comments on A note on the description complexity of physical theories - Less Wrong

19 Post author: cousin_it 09 November 2010 04:25PM

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Comment author: PhilGoetz 10 November 2010 11:34:31PM *  -1 points [-]

No. You're comparing the likelihood of 2 hypothesis. The observation that you survived 1000 good suicide attempts is much more likely under MWI than under Copenhagen. Then you flip it around using Bayes' rule, and believe in MWI.

But other Bayesians around you should not agree with you. This is a case where Bayesians should agree to disagree.

Comment author: Jack 11 November 2010 07:43:40AM 0 points [-]

First, not to be nit-picky but MWI != QI. Second, if your suicide attempts are well documented the branch in which you survived would be populated by Bayesians who agreed with you, no?

Comment author: PhilGoetz 12 November 2010 03:56:17AM 1 point [-]

The Bayesians wouldn't agree with you, because the observation that you survived all those suicide attempts is, to them, equally likely under MWI or Copenhagen.