Bongo comments on If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty... - Less Wrong

83 Post author: ata 12 November 2010 01:14AM

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Comment author: Bongo 12 November 2010 06:44:04AM *  0 points [-]

Each interview consists of one question, “What is your credence now for the proposition that our coin landed heads?”, and the answer given will be scored according to a logarithmic scoring rule, with the aggregate result corresponding to the number of utilons (converted to dollars, let’s say) she will be penalized after the experiment.

Here is a diagram I made of this situation, inspired by my adventures here.

The semantics are such that for example, because all the player nodes are inside a blue blob, p=q=r, unless you choose an answer by flipping coins or something.

Edit: fixed; thanks, RobinZ

Comment author: RobinZ 12 November 2010 01:36:12PM 0 points [-]

...where's the flip corresponding to getting scored for the other outcome? Doesn't that make it 1-p=q=r?

Comment author: Bongo 12 November 2010 01:48:14PM *  1 point [-]

You're right about the payoffs. But p=q=r nevertheless.