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Stuart_Armstrong comments on If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty... - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
I like the approach, but I feel you have not given justice to the 1/2 position. Some of Nick Bostrom's work on observer moments is very impressive in this regard; however I've been able to show that they imply that Sleeping Beauty can be money pumped.
I would personally take that to show that the 1/2 position is just wrong, but it also implies that some who do hold it are not clinging to a position that can be 'dissolved' in the way you are saying - they have a position that would result in them taking different odds on the same bets as 1/3's or some 1/2's.
Wei has a UDT approach that is similar to this; I can't seem to find it, though.
This is only true once you have described Beauty's reward scheme: the whole point of this post is that the probability to use depends on that.