Varan comments on If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty... - Less Wrong
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Am I right to say that for classic probability theory the probability is the number of positive outcomes over the number of experiments? If that's correct, then the answer depends on what we consider to be an experiment. If it's the Sleeping Beauty's awakening, then it's two tails and one heads over three awakenings. If the whole procedure (or just a coin flip) is an experiment, then it's one heads and one tails over two procedures.