solipsist comments on If a tree falls on Sleeping Beauty... - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
I agree with the conclusions to most of the ways you frame the Sleeping Beaty problem, but not this important one.
I disagree -- I think Monday's Sleeping Beauty should be surprised to learn that the coin landed on heads. I think my logic would be clear to you*, but your logic is opaque to me. This makes me suspect I'm missing something, and if I am, it's something important. Perhaps we're using different definitions of "surprised"?
*see the credence and log-scoring framing
ETA I'd appreciate an explanation as to what surprise has to do with likelihood. If I smell bacon when I wake up tomorrow, I'll be quite surprised to learn that George Foreman is grilling me bacon burgers. There's a high likelihood that I will smell bacon when I wake up tomorrow given George Foreman is grilling me bacon burgers, but that high likelihood would not temper my surprise.