pjeby comments on Fixedness From Frailty - Less Wrong
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The problem is that Omega is by definition a hypothetical construct for purposes of exploring philosophical edge cases. We're not talking about any reasonable real-world phenomenon.
Let's taboo Omega. What are you actually describing happening here? What is the entity that can do these things, in your experience? I don't believe your first thought would be "gosh, it turns out the philosophical construct Omega is real." You'd think of the entity as a human. What characteristics would you ascribe to this person?
e.g. A rich and powerful man called O'Mega (of, say, Buffett or Soros levels of wealth and fame - you know this guy is real, very smart and ridiculously more successful than you) shows you two boxes, A and B, and offers you the choice of taking only box A, or both boxes A and B. O'Mega shows you that he has put $1,000 in box B. O'Mega says that if he thinks you will take box A only, he will have put $1,000,000 in it (he does not show you). Otherwise he will have left it empty. O'Mega says he has played this game many times, and says he has never been wrong in his predictions about whether someone will take both boxes or not.
Would the most useful response in this real-world situation be: 1. Take both boxes. 2. Take box A. 3. walk away, not taking any money, because you don't understand his wacky game and want no part of it, before going home to hit the Internet and tell Reddit and LessWrong about it. 4. Invent timeless decision theory?
I think the first thing I would do is ask what he'll give me if he is wrong. ;-)
(Rationale: my first expectation is that Mr. O'Mega likes to mess with people's minds, and sees it as worth risking $1000 just to watch people take an empty box and get pissed at him, or to crow in delight when you take both boxes and feel like you lost a million that you never would've had in the first place. So, absent any independent way to determine the odds that he's playing the game sincerely, I at least want a consolation prize for the "he's just messing with me" case.)