JGWeissman comments on Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time) - Less Wrong

18 [deleted] 15 November 2010 02:20AM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 15 November 2010 10:39:00PM 7 points [-]

The wise monks would avoid correctly guessing the traveler's news (at least out loud), lest their lives depend upon repeating the performance.

Comment author: Tesseract 03 December 2010 09:40:51PM *  1 point [-]

Unless they expect that all other monks would think similarly, in which case they can take Priority without risk.

[Edit for my own memory: In game theoretic terms, they expect a large amount of utility if they decide to take Priority but others don't, while they expect a rather larger amount of disutility if they decide to take Priority and others also do. In other words, they experience a utility gain only if they decide to take Priority using an algorithm different from the one used by the other monks. That seems to imply a "contrarian" decision theory, which decides based on the decision theory held by the other monks... but the existence of more than one contrarian would negate the benefit of being a contrarian at all... Needs more thought.]