Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time)

Tell us a story. A tall tale for King Solamona, a yarn for the folk of Bensalem, a little nugget of wisdom, finely folded into a parable for the pages.

The game is simple:

Choose a bias, a fallacy, some common error of thought.
Write a short, hopefully entertaining narrative. Use the narrative to strengthen the reader against the errors you chose.
Post your story in reply to this post.
Give the authors positive and constructive feedback. Use rot13 if it seems appropriate.
Post all discussion about this post in the designated post discussion thread, not under this top-level post.

This isn't a thread for developing new ideas. If you have a novel concept to explore, you should consider making a top-level post on LessWrong instead. This is for sharpening our wits against the mental perils we probably already agree exist. For practicing good thinking, for recognizing bad thinking, for fun! For sanity's sake, tell us a story.

Tell us a story. A tall tale for King Solamona, a yarn for the folk of Bensalem, a little nugget of wisdom, finely folded into a parable for the pages.

The game is simple:

Choose a bias, a fallacy, some common error of thought.
Write a short, hopefully entertaining narrative. Use the narrative to strengthen the reader against the errors you chose.
Post your story in reply to this post.
Give the authors positive and constructive feedback. Use rot13 if it seems appropriate.
Post all discussion about this post in the designated post discussion thread, not under this top-level post.

The wise monks would avoid correctly guessing the traveler's news (at least out loud), lest their lives depend upon repeating the performance.

Unless they expect that all other monks would think similarly, in which case they can take Priority without risk.

[Edit for my own memory: In game theoretic terms, they expect a large amount of utility if they decide to take Priority but others don't, while they expect a rather larger amount of disutility if they decide to take Priority and others also do. In other words, they experience a utility gain only if they decide to take Priority using an algorithm different from the one used by the other monks. That seems to imply a "contrarian" decision... (read more)

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