Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time)

Tell us a story. A tall tale for King Solamona, a yarn for the folk of Bensalem, a little nugget of wisdom, finely folded into a parable for the pages.

The game is simple:

Choose a bias, a fallacy, some common error of thought.
Write a short, hopefully entertaining narrative. Use the narrative to strengthen the reader against the errors you chose.
Post your story in reply to this post.
Give the authors positive and constructive feedback. Use rot13 if it seems appropriate.
Post all discussion about this post in the designated post discussion thread, not under this top-level post.

This isn't a thread for developing new ideas. If you have a novel concept to explore, you should consider making a top-level post on LessWrong instead. This is for sharpening our wits against the mental perils we probably already agree exist. For practicing good thinking, for recognizing bad thinking, for fun! For sanity's sake, tell us a story.

Tell us a story. A tall tale for King Solamona, a yarn for the folk of Bensalem, a little nugget of wisdom, finely folded into a parable for the pages.

The game is simple:

Choose a bias, a fallacy, some common error of thought.
Write a short, hopefully entertaining narrative. Use the narrative to strengthen the reader against the errors you chose.
Post your story in reply to this post.
Give the authors positive and constructive feedback. Use rot13 if it seems appropriate.
Post all discussion about this post in the designated post discussion thread, not under this top-level post.

OK! Now that a fair number have read & upvoted, quiz time!

How many realized that this story advocates assassination markets? How many read it, thought it was a good system, but react with horror to the bald idea of assassination markets?

Yes, I recognized this as a fantasy application of Jim Bell's "Assassination Politics." I think AP would work better in an Iron Age/fantasy setting than in a modern context where anyone with a computer and a 'net connection could donate anonymously to assassination jackpots. In an Iron Age setting, pretty much the only people famous and hated enough to garner significant jackpots would be despotic kings and priests, and their generals. Assassination itself would be as dangerous as the rulers could make it, so it probably would only happen when... (read more)

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Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time)

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Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time)

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