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jsalvatier comments on Bayesian Nights (Rationalist Story Time) - Less Wrong
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It's a well written story, but I don't think the error is a good one. What is the lesson? Don't be casual about your life? I don't think many people have that bias in situations roughly analogous to the one in your story.
I was trying to convey the Litany of Gendlin as the principle the story was based on. The lesson would be "Don't deny or ignore facts, even if there's lots of money in it for you, because the facts are still facts whether you like it or not." I think situations like climate change, peak oil, over-exploitation of aquifers and letting the FIRE sector run rampant over the real economy count as real-world examples.