Rolf's original formulation of this gambit fell a few steps short of making sense, but it was rethought by norman noman and others in that thread into something that does, I think.

In the new formulation, there's no first mover advantage anymore, nor is it a one-way "deterrence". It's a cooperation between the rogue AI and the friendly AI (and presumably many many other rogue and friendly AIs, all simulating each other)

I'm on the fence as to whether the world really works this way, but it seems to work in cartoon form:

http://poorlyplannedcomics.com/?p=901