Vaniver comments on Imperfect Levers - Less Wrong
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Comments (36)
Not sure about this either. It seems like a few good people can be as effective as a great person, and a few great people as effective as a fantastic person, especially when you're looking for things that are broader (design an airplane) rather than deeper (design general relativity). It's very possible we've hit saturation and so this isn't as noticeable; the few great people aren't competing against one fantastic person, but a few fantastic people.
I worded that too strongly. You get diminishing returns on possible breakthroughs after a certain point. You get more effective smartness, but its not drastically better to the extent that a GAI is.