Vladimir_Nesov comments on What I've learned from Less Wrong - Less Wrong
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Given a clear explanation, it's more probably correct than secretly wrong. We don't live in a world dominated by true-sounding lies. Incorrect things should be generally more surprising than correct things, even if there are exceptions.
(It's confirmation bias, not hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is overestimation of prior probability upon observing a positive instance of an event.)