JGWeissman comments on Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof - Less Wrong

30 Post author: komponisto 24 November 2010 03:40AM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 24 November 2010 07:00:32AM 2 points [-]

If A is strong evidence of B

I would word this as "If A is sufficiently strong evidence of B to overcome B's prior improbability". Simply saying "A is strong evidence of B" feels to me like a statement about the likelihood ratio, not the posterior probability.

Comment author: komponisto 24 November 2010 07:24:40AM *  0 points [-]

This concern occurred to me; but consider: just how large does the likelihood ratio have to be for the evidence to be considered "strong"? Arguably, this depends on the prior probability (and thus the desired posterior probability) in the first place.

In any event, my hope is that the meanings of these vague verbal mnemonics are sufficiently clarified by the formulas.

ETA: Word "sufficiently" added to post.