komponisto comments on Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof - Less Wrong
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Look, I'm not saying Massei and Cristiani's argument that Knox and Sollecito staged the burglary is convincing, by any means!
That said, their argument that if the burglary was staged, the staging was done by Knox and Sollecito is probably the most convincing part of it. At the very least, they would have a highish prior, since they had access to the house and were "available" that night to do the staging if they wanted to.