Comment on Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 01:33:51 GMT

Pretty much, I think.

If the prior P(guilty) is 1:1000000 and P(guilty|staged) is really high, a consistent prior requires that P(staged) is around 1:1000000 as well. Therefore 1000:1 evidence isn't enough.

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