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Manfred comments on $100 for the best article on efficient charity -- deadline Wednesday 1st December - Less Wrong
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Sorry, I'd like to, but I'm running on flawed hardware. The uncertainty distribution is itself plagued by error bars, and so on all the way down. As Dirty Harry would put it, "A man's gotta know his limitations." Or, if you prefer Sherlock Holmes, "Data, data, data! I cannot make bricks without clay."
But in the end, there is an "all the way down," that being the information you started from. So the problem is solvable by good ol' statistics, usually with there being a single best option.