It sounds like meta -errors are not your true rejection. I'd guess that your true rejection might be wanting to avoid the emotional pain of failure if you stake all $ on one particularly good-looking charity which then goes on to be exposed as a fraud.
That's a pretty good guess. Probably correct. I wonder, though, how many people manage to care about charity so directly as to value saving lives literally for the sake of saving lives, rather than for the emotional satisfaction associated with it. I think the odds of me suffering from plague, reincarnation, violent uprising, etc. that is partly caused by me donating to a slightly suboptimal basket of charities are basically negligible. What, then, is the moral or philosophical theory that says that I should privilege the act of donating my whole charity budget to one maximally efficient charity over the emotional satisfaction of donating to a basket of moderately efficient charities? I enjoy the latter more; I know because I have tried each method a few times in different years. Why should I personally do something that I enjoy less? I don't mean to be triumphant about this; possibly there is a very good reason why I should do something that I enjoy less. I just don't know what it is. And don't say something blunt like "it'll save more lives." I know it will save more lives on average, and I've noticed that I don't care. Should I work to change this about myself, and if so, why?
I see it as a "deal" between an egoist subagent and an altruist subagent.
The crucially important factor in this deal is just what the effectiveness ratio is between charity #1 and charities#2, #3, #4, #5, #6. If the marginal good done per $ is similar between all of them, then OK go ahead and diversify.
Reposted from a few days ago, noting that jsalvatier (kudos to him for putting up the prize money, very community spirited) has promised $100 to the winner, and I have decided to set a deadline of Wednesday 1st December for submissions, as my friend has called me and asked me where the article I promised him is. This guy wants his god-damn rationality already, people!
My friend is currently in a potentially lucrative management consultancy career, but is considering getting a job in eco-tourism because he "wants to make the world a better place" and we got into a debate about Efficient Charity, Roles vs. Goals, and Optimizing versus Acquiring Warm Fuzzies.
I thought that there would be a good article here that I could send him to, but there isn't. So I've decided to ask people to write such an article. What I am looking for is an article that is less than 1800 words long, and explains the following ideas:
but without using any unexplained LW Jargon. (Utilons, Warm Fuzzies, optimizing). Linking to posts explaining jargon is NOT OK. Just don't use any LW Jargon at all. I will judge the winner based upon these criteria and the score that the article gets on LW. Maybe the winning article will not rigidly meet all criteria: there is some flexibility. The point of the article is to persuade people who are, at least to some extent charitable and who are smart (university educated at a top university or equivalent) to seriously consider investing more time in rationality when they want to do charitable things.