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Marshall comments on Rational Me or We? - Less Wrong
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Comments (128)
It's pretty hard to be isolated in a world of six billion people. The more key question is the probability of coordinating with any randomly selected person on a rationalist topic of fixed difficulty, and the total size of the community available to support some number of institutions.
To put it bluntly, if you built the ideal rationalist institution that requires one million supporters, you'd be in trouble because the 99.98th percentile of rationality is not adequate to support it (and also such rationalists may have other demands on their time).
But if you can build institutions that grow starting from small groups even in a not-previously-friendly environment, or upgrade rationalists starting from the 98th percentile to what we would currently regard as much higher levels, then odds look better for such institutions.
We both want to live in a friendly world with lots of high-grade rationalists and excellent institutions with good tests and good incentives, but I don't think I already live there.
I'm surprised to see this go negative.
Granted, Marshall didn't explain his position in any detail. But his position is not indefensible, and I'm glad he's willing to share it.
It doesn't take much - just one jerk systematically downvoting a page or two of your existing comments. I lost like 37 points in less than an hour that way a few days ago. We really need separate up/down counts, or better yet ups and downs per voter, so you can ignore systematic friend upvotes and foe downvotes.
Are we already getting this behavior? I'll have to start looking into voting patterns... Sigh.
Have you looked at Raph Levien's work on attack resistant trust metrics?
Couldn't it also be due to a change in the karma calculation rules in order to, say, not take your own upvote in account on karma calculations? I remember that was mentioned, but don't know if it was implemented in the meantime.
Edit: Well, it seems that it isn't implemented yet, since posting this got me a karma point :)