b1shop comments on Rational Me or We? - Less Wrong
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Why do these prediction markets have to be subsidized? In the U.S., online prediction markets are currently considered internet gambling and are hampered. Is there a reason legal, laissez-faire prediction markets couldn't take hold?
(Did I miss any?)
Hence, subsidies. Peter McCluskey ran a market-maker bot (OB coverage). Some traders discuss bots; note that they say it's hard to arbitrage Intrade & Betfair in part due to low volume and fees and costs (McCluskey's page mentions that Intrade "agreed not to charge any trading or expiry fees".)
Thanks. I've been curious about the interest question for a while.
McCluskey's followup: http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/13/automated-market-maker-results/
Googling some more, relevant links are http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/intrade-fee-str.html and http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4471.page
Probably could find more examples of how Intrade is not an optimal prediction market using this tag: http://www.overcomingbias.com/tag/prediction-markets