gwern comments on Rational Me or We? - Less Wrong

116 Post author: RobinHanson 17 March 2009 01:39PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (128)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gwern 15 August 2010 10:48:17AM *  3 points [-]
  • Prediction markets are currently immature and controversial, and so might have trouble bootstrapping.
  • Their legality is problematic. (The IEM had to get a special exemption from the SEC to run.)
  • Prediction markets like Intrade currently are structured in ways bad for financial return. (IIRC, the issue is that Intrade offers a very low or no interest rate on deposited funds - the float is a source of profit for it.)
  • Long-run prediction markets like many possible scientific or academic questions are not financially viable (see 'opportunity cost'), while sports and gambling bets are inherently short-term, taking no more than a year.
  • A succession of short-term markets might help, but then you have the problem that with the natural low prices on 'success' shares, it's hard to make any profit. (eg. imagine a 'cold fusion in 2010' market - it'd be at a penny or two. Suddenly shares double due to a new paper! But because it's so lightly traded, you only made a dime on your prescient long position.)

(Did I miss any?)

Hence, subsidies. Peter McCluskey ran a market-maker bot (OB coverage). Some traders discuss bots; note that they say it's hard to arbitrage Intrade & Betfair in part due to low volume and fees and costs (McCluskey's page mentions that Intrade "agreed not to charge any trading or expiry fees".)

Comment author: b1shop 15 August 2010 11:04:44AM *  0 points [-]

Thanks. I've been curious about the interest question for a while.

Comment author: gwern 20 May 2012 04:35:43AM 0 points [-]
Comment author: gwern 15 August 2010 11:16:58AM 0 points [-]

Googling some more, relevant links are http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/11/intrade-fee-str.html and http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/4471.page

Probably could find more examples of how Intrade is not an optimal prediction market using this tag: http://www.overcomingbias.com/tag/prediction-markets