= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Kevin comments on Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (68)
I came very close to making a large bet against Prop 19 passing in CA, because the universe where marijuana was legalized would have been A very desirable place for me and my business to find ourselves. If the US Department of Justice was busy suing California they wouldn't have the resources to spend on scheduling kratom.
Alas, I didn't (for the same reason I have never bet on In Trade, hyperbolic discounting, basically... I want to make my bet right now, not wire it and wait a week), so I am several thousand dollars poorer than I would have been and marijuana isn't legal in California.
I'm also reluctant to buy not-Obama futures right now because I think Obama's chance of winning is closer to 75% and that the market will correct itself eventually and I'll be able to buy right around the inflection point.
This would seem to suggest that it would be rational for you to be selling not-Obama futures now. Until the market reaches your prediction modified by your risk-aversion incentives and overhead.
Or they would look for politically easy drugs nobody has heard of, in order to convince conservative voters that they're doing something. Few people have heard of kratom, so it's a great candidate for this. The more sensationalist news sources will report that kratom is a dangerous, highly addictive drug that is used by some people during sex. Eventually the debate will be over whether it should be Schedule 1, or whether there are acceptable medical uses for it.
On the plus side, though, throwing kratom under a bus might help distract from California's sadly-hypothetical legal marijuana issue.
This is actually one of the best long term ways for my business to wind down in 10-15 years.
Kratom has a very obvious medical use. It's an opioid and there is evidence that it has fewer side effects than morphine in mice (less constipation, and less "rewarding action" (euphoria) per unit of analgesia).
There is a patent pending for all possible derivatives of kratom: http://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PG01&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/srchnum.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=%2220090221623%22.PGNR.&OS=DN/20090221623&RS=DN/20090221623
I think the debate will likely be about whether kratom derivatives should be schedule 2 or schedule 4.