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Kevin comments on Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself - Less Wrong
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People other than me seem to be consistently more optimistic about the future prospects of my business. I'm not sure what to make of that.
Inside view vs outside view, probably. You are looking at the myriad ways in which the system could absentmindedly crush your business; other people are extrapolating from their knowledge of previous similar cases.
Possibly it is just social convention. You have to be pessimistic about your business because it's rude to gloat, and other people have to be optimistic about your business because it's a form of well-wishing.
You also have to pessimistic about your business to make appropriate insurance decisions! (And not just literally buying insurance, or making side bets.)
The Eye of Sauron might turn to face you, but I think it will be more a random thing than something predictable by a change in administration.
How pessimistic are you generally?
It wouldn't surprise me if there's a bias for people to worry about things going badly for themselves (high stakes), and for them to be reassuring about things going badly for other people (improve the emotional atmosphere). This doesn't say anything about who's right.
What do other kratom sellers seem to think?
Not very pessimistic compared to the average LWer. I have weird ontological views that make me extremely optimistic in the larger pessimism/optimism spectrum, but applied only to myself I'm still more optimistic than average if only because my life so far has shown that optimism would have been more correct than pessimism in retrospect. I did not expect one year ago or when I started this business almost four years ago that it would be doing as well as it is.
We don't talk about it. I should probably ask, but let's just say that there is a status quo of cooperation among the kratom vendors (the specifics of which I don't want to get into here) and it seems much simpler to maintain the current state of non communication. Though there are a few vendors I could and probably should ask.
My opinion that kratom will remain legal indefinitely if marijuana is legalized was an outside opinion from a rather accomplished drug legalization lobbyist.