knb comments on Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself - Less Wrong

29 Post author: MBlume 26 November 2010 04:48AM

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Comment author: knb 27 November 2010 01:31:33AM 13 points [-]

Why would Obama's prospects have any kind of significant effect on kratom's legality? Congress writes legislation. Obama could veto kratom prohibition, I guess, but he hasn't shown himself to be more pro-drug than any other recent president.

As a senatorial candidate, Obama advocated marijuana decriminalization, a position he renounced when he ran for president. As a presidential candidate, he said he would end the DEA's medical marijuana raids, a promise he broke after he was elected. So far he has waged the war on drugs, which he once called an "utter failure," in pretty much the same manner as his predecessor, only with more money. The one substantial improvement in federal drug policy since Obama took office is crack sentencing reform, which he supported. But that change was in the works for years and had already attracted support from most Republicans, including George Bush.

Comment author: Kevin 30 November 2010 10:16:10AM 0 points [-]

I would expect that kratom would be illegalized via a random, trivial action of some government agency, not something at the executive level. Broadly, though there are many, many scenarios where kratom could be illegalized under Obama, there are more under a Republican president. For one reason, it is at least possible that national drug prohibition could end during a second term of Obama where that is more or less impossible under a Republic executive.

Comment author: knb 30 November 2010 11:25:10PM 0 points [-]

For one reason, it is at least possible that national drug prohibition could end during a second term of Obama where that is more or less impossible under a Republic executive.

I doubt there is much difference at all. Prop 19 was a lot more modest than ending national drug prohibition, yet the White House declared it would not respect state law, and would continue raiding pot dispensaries (if 19 passed). Admittedly, it is possible that Obama is secretly an anti-prohibitionist, and that he has just been acting like the exact opposite for political reasons. But that applies equally to the Republicans. And, of course, since we don't yet know who the republican candidate will be, there is some small chance that a libertarian-leaning republican will win, and actually be somewhat anti-prohibition.

Of course, this is all overwhelmed by the fact that the president's effect on kratom legality is trivial (compared to Congress, FDA, other bureaus, state legislatures, local governments, etc.) Basically, worrying about who holds the white house is kinda silly when you consider how widely distributed regulating power really is.