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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself - Less Wrong
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You are considering the wrong alternatives, things that can possibly happen independently on your actions, while the alternatives that should be considered result from your taking different actions. The alternatives under the factors you don't control are just internal structure of your model of uncertainty inside a particular possible decision.
I'm not sure what you mean by "thing that can possibly happen independently on your actions". But "the money becomes worthless" is not independent of your action — the money's becoming worthless requires that you choose to bet.