DSimon comments on Buy Insurance -- Bet Against Yourself - Less Wrong

29 Post author: MBlume 26 November 2010 04:48AM

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Comment author: Kingreaper 26 November 2010 11:27:30AM *  2 points [-]

The point isn't to make irrational bets, but rather to make rational ones. Ones where the odds you're getting are reasonable, and you're ensuring a certain wealth/happiness minimum for yourself.

Just because you consider it GOOD if Obama wins doesn't mean you can rationally conclude "Obama will win". In fact any way that you can conclude an Obama victory from your liking Obama is obviously irrational.

However concluding that Obama losing will cause you to have financial difficulties means that insuring yourself against such a loss is very useful.

Comment author: DSimon 30 November 2010 06:02:55PM *  1 point [-]

In fact any way that you can conclude an Obama victory from your liking Obama is obviously irrational.

Unless of course you are the CEO of a company with a large contract to manufacture computerized voting machines. In that circumstance, you could also conclude a not-Obama victory if you don't like Obama.