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JamesAndrix comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong
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Hypothesis:
Margaret Bulstrode was being watched and/or later questioned, and Dumbledore just put Harry in jail.
I think I can go ahead and say, now that Ch. 63 is up, that there are exactly two characters in this fic who will reliably think of that sort of thing, and they are Professor Quirrell and Mad-Eye Moody.
It's only the Idiot Ball if it has been previously established that the character is too intelligent to make a mistake. Not all characters in this fic are supposed to be that intelligent!
On the topic of Mad-Eye, as it has been established that Mad-Eye can see everywhere, why doesn't he go pick up Bella while she is weak?
Presumably there still is a limit to how much information his brain can process. Even if he could scan 1000m^2 per second on average (open land faster, forests, cities etc slower) he would need about 5000 years to search all of earth's land surface.
True, however assuming the cannon limitation on apparition distance and broomstick speeds, he could search the UK pretty quickly, followed by Europe.
Perhaps Quirrell expects this; she's not in Europe.
This is actually pretty brilliant.