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WrongBot comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 6 - Less Wrong
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Comments (541)
Chapter 65:
Should Harry believe what Quirrell told him about the destination of the Portkey?
Yes. It's a question that could be verified by a third party without too much difficulty, and I think Quirrell would strongly disprefer to be caught lying. Making Harry mistrust the note-sender may be to his advantage, but I don't think it's enough to outweigh the downside.
If he did (somehow) know about the note before Harry told him about it, there could well be some plausibly deniable reason he could later give as to why he was only able to say "London" and not "The Chancery Building"
I'm not sure what potential risks portkeys could have over long distances (in Canon Potter, to say nothing of MOR Potter) so this might not actually be evidence of trickery on Santa Claus' part, although since neither of the two brought it up I'm probably just fighting Santa Claus not intending to send Harry to Salem because that's just what Eliezer wants us to think.
Canon presents it as very safe. It's used internationally; I believe we read in Goblet of Fire of people coming from North America to Britain via portkey and possibly even further. No risks are ever seen or mentioned (in stark contrast to apparition or Floo or broom). It's used in preference to any of the other methods for children going to the Quidditch World Cup, further cementing its apparent safety. And so on. The downside seems to be that it's somewhat unwieldy and inflexible, and not too great at moving lots of people from point A to point B (witness the Hogwarts Express versus the the difficulties Harry & co. have with their large portkey group going to the Cup).
And it still might be useful as a "panic button" if all else fails - yes, it might be a trap of some kind, but it still might be better than whatever immediate danger Harry finds himself in.
Of course, the best time to lie is once you have a reputation for perfect honesty.
Nobody trusts anyone to be perfectly honest. In my view, the best time to lie is once you've built up a misleading reputation for being bad at lying.
Not quite - it's the easiest time to lie, but it can still be a terrible idea.
The best time to lie is when you can't be caught.