orthonormal comments on The Boundaries of Biases - Less Wrong

8 Post author: Vaniver 01 December 2010 12:43AM

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Comment author: bentarm 01 December 2010 11:32:39PM 0 points [-]

One of the findings they discussed was that not only did experts have lower accuracy than the statistically generated rules, when given the result of the rule and the option to defect from its prediction they were much more likely to chose to defect when the rule was right and they were wrong than the other way around.

Ok, I haven't read the book. But doesn't the second statement follow logically from the first? Both seem equivalent to saying that when the experts disagreed with the rule, the rule was right more often than they were.

Comment author: orthonormal 02 December 2010 11:12:13PM 0 points [-]

I think the first finding was that experts did worse than the rule, when they weren't given the predictions of the rules; the second was that they still did worse than the rule when given its prediction in advance of answering.