gwern comments on Efficient Charity - Less Wrong
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Yes. "I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know no way of judging the future but by the past." Presumably we are not discussing the CPC in a charity context solely out of a historical interest, but to guide our future actions.
Paul Krugman writes:
He is speaking of Russia, of course. Krugman then goes on to say that the growth was perfectly explicable by normal industrialization and not by any special governing factors (no 'your legal kung fu is best'):
So. I think no one here would suggest that donating to the CCCP (rather than CPC) would have been very effective, nor did the CCCP government offer much worth imitating.
If the CCCP didn't, the Outside View asks, what makes the CPC different?
I have extremely low opinion of Krugman's writings so I won't address his vague claims. If he has some numbers or some actual predictions, I might take a second look.
"Communist" countries on average did about as well as world average, so Soviet Union is no counterargument to anything. The big failures were definitely non-Communist countries of Latin America, Africa, India, Indonesia etc. The paper uses 1937 baseline, which is about the most unfriendly baseline towards "Communist" countries possible.
Outside view says country being "Communist" or not is pretty much irrelevant.
OK, in that case - why are we assuming the CPC has anything to do with the success and so donating to it could have any effect to begin with?
What do you mean? CPC is the single most successful government in history.
Lack of correlation between "Communism" and economic growth matters as much as lack of correlation between country's position in alphabet and economic growth.