Agreed with what SarahC says, but will add to it that your suspicions about the speaker ("that who uttered the second phrase was more likely to disapprove of homosexuality than who uttered the first phrase") are not irrelevant.
That is, if the speaker doesn't disapprove of homosexuality, then the second phrase is conveying misleading information about the speaker, who is real. In this case, yes, reality is being described less accurately by the second phrase.
By the same token, if the speaker does disapprove, then reality is being described less accurately (along this axis) by the first phrase.
Also, it's worth asking why you conclude what you do about the speaker. It seems likely to me that it's not an idiosyncrasy of yours, but rather that you are responding to connotations of the word "aberration" which are communicated by the second phrase... specifically connotations involving, not only the statistical likelihoods, but the perceived social value of people who are/aren't straight.
One could therefore determine which phrase was more accurate in a particular society by looking at how people's value to that society varies with their orientation.
Something similar might be true about perceived moral value, but talking about moral value as part of reality is more problematic.
Also, it's worth asking why you conclude what you do about the speaker. It seems likely to me that it's not an idiosyncrasy of yours, but rather that you are responding to connotations of the word "aberration" which are communicated by the second phrase... specifically connotations involving, not only the statistical likelihoods, but the perceived social value of people who are/aren't straight.
I think this is only due to the fact that we're both aware of political battles over homosexuality. I don't read any disapproval of six-fingered people...
During discussion in my previous post, when we touched the subject of human statistical majorities, I had a side-thought. If taking the Less Wrong audience as an example, the statistics say that any given participant is strongly likely to be white, male, atheist, and well, just going by general human statistics, probably heterosexual.
But in my actual interaction, I've taken as a rule not to make any assumptions about the other person. Does it mean, I thought, that I reset my prior probabilities, and consciously choose to discard information? Not relying on implicit assumptions seems the socially right thing to do, I thought; but is it rational?
When I discussed it on IRC, this quote by sh struck me as insightful:
I came up with the following payoff matrix:
In this case, the second option is strictly preferable. In other words, I don't discard the information, but the repercussions to our social interaction in case of an incorrect guess outweigh the benefit from guessing correctly. And it also matters whether either Alice or Bob is an Asker or a Guesser.
One consequence I can think of is that with a sufficiently low p, or if Bob wouldn't be particularly offended by Alice's incorrect guess, taking the guess would be preferable. Now I wonder if we do that a lot in daily life with issues we don't consider controversial ("hmm, are you from my country/state too?"), and if all the "you're overreacting/too sensitive" complaints come from Alice incorrectly assessing a too low-by-absolute-value negative payoff in (0, 1).