Speaking from my personal experience, when I as a listener had problems accepting a conclusion which was considered natural and perhaps obvious by the speaker, it was rarely because I misinterpreted the meaning (now I am apeaking about conclusions which I have accepted as obvious later, so that I can judge whether I understood what has been said earlier). The reason was rather that I lacked some background knowledge or thinking habits which caused my P(T) being low, not P(U|T).