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shokwave comments on Best career models for doing research? - Less Wrong
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Out of curiosity: what evidence would convince you that the fate of the entire universe does hang in the balance?
No human-comparable aliens, for one.
Which seems awfully unlikely, the more we learn about solar systems.
"Convince me" - with some unspecified level of confidence? That is not a great question :-|
We lack knowlegde of the existence (or non-existence) of aliens in other galaxies. Until we have such knowledge, our uncertainty on this matter will necessarily be high - and we should not be "convinced" of anything.
What evidence would convince you, with 95% confidence, that the fate of the universe hangs in the balance in this next century on Earth?
You may specify evidence such as "strong evidence that we are completely alone in the universe" even if you think it is unlikely we will get such evidence.
I did get the gist of your question the first time - and answered according. The question takes us far into counter-factual territory, though.
I was just curious to see if you rejected the fantasy on principle, or if you had other reasons.