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shokwave comments on Best career models for doing research? - Less Wrong
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What evidence would convince you, with 95% confidence, that the fate of the universe hangs in the balance in this next century on Earth?
You may specify evidence such as "strong evidence that we are completely alone in the universe" even if you think it is unlikely we will get such evidence.
I did get the gist of your question the first time - and answered according. The question takes us far into counter-factual territory, though.
I was just curious to see if you rejected the fantasy on principle, or if you had other reasons.