accusations stick in the mind even when one is explicitly told they are false
Actually that citation is about both positive and negative things -- so unless you're also asking pro-SIAI people to hush up, you're (perhaps unknowingly) seeking to cause a pro-SIAI bias.
Another thing that citation seems to imply is that reflecting on, rather than simply diverting our attention away from scary thoughts is essential to coming to a correct opinion on them.
One of the interesting morals from Roko's contest is that if you care deeply about getting the most benefit per donated dollar you have to look very closely at who you're giving it to.
Market forces work really well for lightbulb-sales businesses, but not so well for mom-and-pop shops, let alone charities. The motivations, preferences, and likely future actions of the people you're giving money to become very important. Knowing if you can believe the person, in these contexts, becomes even more important.
As you note, I've studied marketing, sales, propaganda, cults, and charities. I know that there are some people who have no problem lying for their cause (especially if it's for their god or to save the world).
I also know that there are some people who absolutely suck at lying. They try to lie, but the truth just seeps out of them.
That's why I give Roko's blurted comments more weight than whatever I'd hear from SIAI people who were chosen by you -- no offence. I'll still talk with you guys, but I don't think a reasonably sane person can trust the sales guy beyond a point.
As far as your question goes, my primary desire is a public, consistent moderation policy for LessWrong. If you're going to call this a community blog devoted to rationality, then please behave in sane ways. (If no one owns the blog -- if it belongs to the community -- then why is there dictatorial post deletion?)
I'd also like an apology from EY with regard to the chilling effects his actions have caused.
But back to what you replied to:
What would SIAI be willing to lie to donors about?
Do you have any answers to this?
To answer your question, despite David Gerard's advice:
I would not lie to donors about the likely impact of their donations, the evidence concerning SIAI's ability or inability to pull off projects, how we compare to other organizations aimed at existential risk reduction, etc. (I don't have all the answers, but I aim for accuracy and revise my beliefs and my statements as evidence comes in; I've actively tried to gather info on whether we or FHI reduce risk more per dollar, and I often recommend to donors that they do their own legwork with that charity ...
Ideally, I'd like to save the world. One way to do that involves contributing academic research, which raises the question of what's the most effective way of doing that.
The traditional wisdom says if you want to do research, you should get a job in a university. But for the most part the system seems to be set up so that you first spend a long time working for someone else and research their ideas, after which you can lead your own group, but then most of your time will be spent on applying for grants and other administrative trivia rather than actually researching the interesting stuff. Also, in Finland at least, all professors need to also spend time doing teaching, so that's another time sink.
I suspect I would have more time to actually dedicate on research, and I could get doing it quicker, if I took a part-time job and did the research in my spare time. E.g. the recommended rates for a freelance journalist in Finland would allow me to spend a week each month doing work and three weeks doing research, of course assuming that I can pull off the freelance journalism part.
What (dis)advantages does this have compared to the traditional model?
Some advantages:
Some disadvantages:
EDIT: Note that while I certainly do appreciate comments specific to my situation, I posted this over at LW and not Discussion because I was hoping the discussion would also be useful for others who might be considering an academic path. So feel free to also provide commentary that's US-specific, say.