I disagree with most of that analysis. I assume machine intelligence will catalyse its own creation. I fully expect that some organisations will stick with secret source code. How could the probability of that possibly be as low as 0.8!?!
I figure that use of open source software is more likely to lead to a more even balance of power - and less likely to lead to a corrupt organisation in charge of the planet's most advanced machine intelligence efforts. That assessment is mostly based on the software industry to date - where many of the worst abuses appear to me to have occurred at the hands of proprietary software vendors.
If you have an unethical open source project, people can just fork it, and make an ethical version. With a closed source project, people don't have that option - they often have to go with whatever they are given by those in charge of the project.
Nor am I assuming that no team will ever win. If there is to be a winner, we want the best possible lead up. The "trust us" model is not it - not by a long shot.
...I figure that use of open source software is more likely to lead to a more even balance of power - and less likely to lead to a corrupt organisation in charge of the planet's most advanced machine intelligence efforts. That assessment is mostly based on the software industry to date - where many of the worst abuses appear to me to have occurred at the hands of proprietary software vendors.
If you have an unethical open source project, people can just fork it, and make an ethical version. With a closed source project, people don't have that option - they o
Ideally, I'd like to save the world. One way to do that involves contributing academic research, which raises the question of what's the most effective way of doing that.
The traditional wisdom says if you want to do research, you should get a job in a university. But for the most part the system seems to be set up so that you first spend a long time working for someone else and research their ideas, after which you can lead your own group, but then most of your time will be spent on applying for grants and other administrative trivia rather than actually researching the interesting stuff. Also, in Finland at least, all professors need to also spend time doing teaching, so that's another time sink.
I suspect I would have more time to actually dedicate on research, and I could get doing it quicker, if I took a part-time job and did the research in my spare time. E.g. the recommended rates for a freelance journalist in Finland would allow me to spend a week each month doing work and three weeks doing research, of course assuming that I can pull off the freelance journalism part.
What (dis)advantages does this have compared to the traditional model?
Some advantages:
Some disadvantages:
EDIT: Note that while I certainly do appreciate comments specific to my situation, I posted this over at LW and not Discussion because I was hoping the discussion would also be useful for others who might be considering an academic path. So feel free to also provide commentary that's US-specific, say.