I suppose that could be the case- I'm trying to unpack what exactly I'm thinking of when I think of 'credibility.' I can see strong arguments for either approach, depending on what 'credibility' is. Originally I was thinking of something along the lines of "prior probability a statement they make will be correct" but as soon as you know the content of the statement, that's not really relevant- and so now I'm imagining something along the lines of "how much I weight unlikely statements made by them," or more likely for a real person, "how much effort i put into checking their statements."
And so for the first one, it doesn't make sense to update the credibility- if someone previously trustworthy tells you something bizarre, you weight it highly. But for the second one, it does make sense to update the credibility first- if someone previously trustworthy tells you something bizarre, you should immediately become more skeptical of the that statement and subsequent ones.
But no more skeptical than is warranted by your prior probability.
Let's say that if aliens exist, a reliable Tim has a 99% probability of saying they do. If they don't, he has a 1% probability of saying they do.
An unreliable Tim has a 50/50 shot in either situation.
My prior was 50/50 reliable/unreliable, 1,000,000/1 don't exist, exist so prior weights:
reliable, exist: 1 unreliable, exist: 1 reliable, don't exist: 1,000,000 unreliable, don't exist, 1,000,000
Updates after he says they do:
reliable, exist: .99 unreliable, exist: .5 reliable, don't exist: 10,00...
Ideally, I'd like to save the world. One way to do that involves contributing academic research, which raises the question of what's the most effective way of doing that.
The traditional wisdom says if you want to do research, you should get a job in a university. But for the most part the system seems to be set up so that you first spend a long time working for someone else and research their ideas, after which you can lead your own group, but then most of your time will be spent on applying for grants and other administrative trivia rather than actually researching the interesting stuff. Also, in Finland at least, all professors need to also spend time doing teaching, so that's another time sink.
I suspect I would have more time to actually dedicate on research, and I could get doing it quicker, if I took a part-time job and did the research in my spare time. E.g. the recommended rates for a freelance journalist in Finland would allow me to spend a week each month doing work and three weeks doing research, of course assuming that I can pull off the freelance journalism part.
What (dis)advantages does this have compared to the traditional model?
Some advantages:
Some disadvantages:
EDIT: Note that while I certainly do appreciate comments specific to my situation, I posted this over at LW and not Discussion because I was hoping the discussion would also be useful for others who might be considering an academic path. So feel free to also provide commentary that's US-specific, say.