Without taking a poll of anything except my memory, Eliezer+Roko+VladNesov+Alicorn are against, DavidGerard+waitingforgodel+vaniver are for.
I'm for. I believe Tim Tyler is for.
Aumann agreement works in the case of hidden information - all you need are posteriors and common knowledge of the event alone.
Human's have this unfortunate feature of not being logically omniscient. In such cases where people don't see all the logical implications of an argument we can treat those implications as hidden information. If this wasn't the case then the censorship would be totally unnecessary as Roko's argument didn't actually include new information. We would have all turned to stone already.
Roko increased his estimation and Eliezer decreased his estimation - and the amounts they did so are balanced according to the strength of their private signals.
There is no way for you to have accurately assessed this. Roko and Eliezer aren't idealized Bayesian agents, it is extremely unlikely they performed a perfect Aumann agreement. If one is more persuasive than the other for reasons other than the evidence they share than their combined support for the proposition may not be worth the same as two people who independently came to support the proposition. Besides which, according to you, what information did they share exactly?
David_Gerard, Jack, timtyler, waitingforgodel, and Vaniver do not currently outweigh Eliezer_Yudkowsky, FormallyknownasRoko, Vladimir_Nesov, and Alicorn, as of now, in my mind.
It does not need to be a perfect Aumann agreement; a merely good one will still reduce the chances of overcounting or undercounting either side's evidence well below the acceptable limits.
There is no way for you to have accurately assessed this. Roko and Eliezer aren't idealized Bayesian agents, it is extremely unlikely they performed a perfect Aumann agreement.
They are approxima...
Ideally, I'd like to save the world. One way to do that involves contributing academic research, which raises the question of what's the most effective way of doing that.
The traditional wisdom says if you want to do research, you should get a job in a university. But for the most part the system seems to be set up so that you first spend a long time working for someone else and research their ideas, after which you can lead your own group, but then most of your time will be spent on applying for grants and other administrative trivia rather than actually researching the interesting stuff. Also, in Finland at least, all professors need to also spend time doing teaching, so that's another time sink.
I suspect I would have more time to actually dedicate on research, and I could get doing it quicker, if I took a part-time job and did the research in my spare time. E.g. the recommended rates for a freelance journalist in Finland would allow me to spend a week each month doing work and three weeks doing research, of course assuming that I can pull off the freelance journalism part.
What (dis)advantages does this have compared to the traditional model?
Some advantages:
Some disadvantages:
EDIT: Note that while I certainly do appreciate comments specific to my situation, I posted this over at LW and not Discussion because I was hoping the discussion would also be useful for others who might be considering an academic path. So feel free to also provide commentary that's US-specific, say.