Alas, I have to reject your summary of my position. The situation as I see it:
DOOM-based organisations are likely to form with a frequency which depends on the extent to which the world is percieved to be at risk;
They are likely to form from those with the highest estimates of p(DOOM);
Once they exist, they are likely to try and grow, much like all organisations tend to do - wanting attention, time, money and other available resources;
Since they are funded in proportion to the percived value of p(DOOM), such organisations will naturally promote the notion that p(DOOM) is a large value.
This is all fine. I accept that DOOM-based organisations will exist, will loudly proclaim the coming apocalypse, and will find supporters to help them propagate their DOOM message. They may be ineffectual, cause despair and depression or help save the world - depending on their competence - and on to what extent their paranoia turns out to be justified.
However, such organisations seem likely to be very bad sources of information for anyone interested in the actual value of p(DOOM). They have obvious vested interests.
Agreed that x-risk orgs are a biased source of info on P(risk) due to self-selection bias. Of course you have to look at other sources of info, you have to take the outside view on these questions, etc.
Personally I think that we are so ignorant and irrational as a species (humanity) and as a culture that there's simply no way to get a good, stable probability estimate for big important questions like this, much less to act rationally on the info.
But I think your pooh-pooh'ing such infantile and amateurish efforts as there is silly when the reasoning is e...
Ideally, I'd like to save the world. One way to do that involves contributing academic research, which raises the question of what's the most effective way of doing that.
The traditional wisdom says if you want to do research, you should get a job in a university. But for the most part the system seems to be set up so that you first spend a long time working for someone else and research their ideas, after which you can lead your own group, but then most of your time will be spent on applying for grants and other administrative trivia rather than actually researching the interesting stuff. Also, in Finland at least, all professors need to also spend time doing teaching, so that's another time sink.
I suspect I would have more time to actually dedicate on research, and I could get doing it quicker, if I took a part-time job and did the research in my spare time. E.g. the recommended rates for a freelance journalist in Finland would allow me to spend a week each month doing work and three weeks doing research, of course assuming that I can pull off the freelance journalism part.
What (dis)advantages does this have compared to the traditional model?
Some advantages:
Some disadvantages:
EDIT: Note that while I certainly do appreciate comments specific to my situation, I posted this over at LW and not Discussion because I was hoping the discussion would also be useful for others who might be considering an academic path. So feel free to also provide commentary that's US-specific, say.