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FormallyknownasRoko comments on Best career models for doing research? - Less Wrong
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The usual Singularity Institute line is that it is worth trying too, I believe. As to what p(success) is, the first thing to do would be to make sure that the parties involved mean the same thing by "success". Otherwise, comparing values would be rather pointless.
This all reminds me of the dirac delta function. Its width is infinitesimal but its area is 1. Sure, it's worth trying in the "Dirac Delta Function" sense.