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ShardPhoenix comments on Unpacking the Concept of "Blackmail" - Less Wrong
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People engage in this kind of counterfactual reasoning all the time without declaring the moon to be made of cheese; I'm not sure why you're questioning it here. If it makes it any easier, think of it as being about the change in expected value immediately after the communication vs. the expected value immediately before the communication - in other words, whether the communication is a positive or negative surprise.
Indeed. How do they manage that? That's one fascinating question.
I think they have an underlying premise that they will believe whatever is necessary to make their lives better, or at least not worse.
Their beliefs about what's better and worse may never be examined, so some of their actions may be obviously sub-optimal. However, they won't fall into thinking that one contradiction means they're obligated to believe every piece of obvious nonsense.